پرسش پیشروی من بسیار ساده است: چرا هر زمان که بازار جهانی با رونق روبرو میشود، خودروسازان ایرانی نیز از این رونق بهره میبرند، اما هر زمان که رکود و بحران دست به گریبان بازار جهانی میشوند خودروسازان ایرانی به هیچ وجه تحت تاثیر قرار نمیگیرند و شاید هم در پی تصاحب سود بیشتر باشند. جنرال موتورز، یکی از بزرگترین تولیدکنندگان خودرو در جهان در طی چند ماه گذشته ۲۲ هزار نفر از کارکنان خود را به شکل محترمانه (بازخرید) اخراج کرده و با افت قیمت تولیدات خود در بازار و همچنین زیان ۱۵ میلیارد دلاری روبرو بوده است. تویوتا، دیروز، به مدت یازده روز تمام کارخانههای خود را در ژاپن تعطیل کرد تا به نوعی در مقابل بحران برنامهریزی کند. اما سایپا و ایران خودرو و … پیشفروشهای خود را اعلام کردند و قیمت کالاهایشان نه تنها کاهش نیافته که افزایش هم یافته است. برای مثال به کسانی که ال ۹۰ ثبت نام کرده بودند گفتهاند که بیایید و پولتان را پس بگیرید. (البته دلیل این کار کاملا مشخص است) خودورسازان داخلی در زمان رونق بازار، میگویند ما مواد اولیه خود را در شرایط رونق خریدهایم و خرید مواد اولیه ما به روز است، بنابراین محصولات ما نیز از افزایش قیمت جهانی تاثیر میپذیرد. اما در زمان کود میگویند ما بیش از یک یا دو سال پیش مواد اولیه خود را با قیمت بالا خریدهایم و از افت قیمتهای جهانی هیچ بهرهای نبردهایم. چند روز پیش رادیو میگفت راهنمایی و رانندگی گفته است که اگر تا پایان سال بعد خودروهای خودروسازان داخلی به سیستمهای مدرن مجهز نشوند اسامی آنان را اعلام میکنیم. این گفته فارغ از هر معنایی یک معنای روشن دارد و آن این است که اگر تا سال بعد هر انسانی به دلیل عدم امنیت خودور داخلی خود بمیرد اشکالی ندارد. انحصار چندجانبه خودروسازان داخلی که با وضع تعرفههای گمرکی زیاد از سوی دولت در برابر رقبای خارجی نیز حمایت میشوند به آنها این امکان را میدهد تا هر طور که بخواهند در بازار عمل کنند. البته این هر طور عمل کردن آنها، از عدم تعبیه سیستمهای ایمنی مدرن در خوردوها و کیفیت نازل آنها گرفته تا عدم تاثیرپذیری از کاهش قیمت جهانی را در بر میگیرد. حال یک پرسش دیگر این است که گیریم یارانهها هدفمند شد. اما آزادسازی بازار خودرو و ورود رقبای خارجی به بازار میسر نشد؛ آیا تغییری در وضعیت خودروسازان داخلی ایجاد میشود؟ آیا آنها همانطور که از رونق بازار سود میبرند از زیان بازار هم ضرر خواهند کرد؟ بنابراین طرح تحول اقتصادی پیش از آنکه نیازمند هدفمندسازی یارانهها باشد باید به دنبال آزادسازی بازار صنایعی باشد که صرفا برمبنای حمایتهای دولت سرپا ایستادهاند و حاضر به ایجاد هیچگونه تغییری هم در وضعیت خود نیستند. مساله محدودیت ملایم بودجه، ناکاراییهای قیمتی ، سازمانی و مجهولی که خودروسازان داخلی به همراه تمامی شرکتهای دولتی از آن نفع میبرند هرگز اجازه نمیدهد تا هدفمندسازی یارانهها به نتیجه مطلوب برسد.
خودروسازان ایرانی و عدم تاثیرپذیری از بحران جهانی؟
۴۶ Responses to “خودروسازان ایرانی و عدم تاثیرپذیری از بحران جهانی؟”
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In the new CBA, isn’t the salary cap something like 54% of revenues? If 54% is not a high enough number, what is?
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The fact that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit says it all. Also, no team coached by Phil Jackson has ever been in a 3-0 hole, so I dont know if hell handle the situation very well. Jackson is a terrific coach, but hes a front-runner. His championships all came with the best player in the NBA and, in a few cases, maybe 2 of the best 5 on his team. As I wrote in my NBA playoff preview, the Lakers had all sorts of problems late in the season. They battled through that against the Hornets, who were missing their leading scorer, but they havent been able to do that in an evenly matched series against the Mavericks. If you want hope for the Lakers, its that Kobe Bryant has an incredible will to win. But its not going to happen. (And if it does happen, I can brag that I picked the Lakers in 7 games.)
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