پارادوکس حضور هوادار در ورزشگاه

در بازی امروز پرسپولیس- استقلال نکته جالب این بود که حضور طرفداران هر دو تیم در ورزشگاه به فاصله خانه طرفدار، یا حتی شهر طرفدار تا ورزشگاه بستگی نداشت و ندارد؟ پرسش این این است که چرا؟ احتمالا یک دلیل ساده، اما، خوب این است که طرفدار بر طبق یک تحلیل هزینه – فایده به ورزشگاه می­آید. برای طرفدار هزینه آمدن به ورزشگاه از منفعت آن بیشتر است. اما منفعت طرفدار در این بازی فوتبال چیست؟ اگر صرفا بُرد تیم، منفعت طرفدار باشد، از پیش احتمال کسب چنن منفعتی، حداقل در این بازی، بسیار پایین است. (حتی احتمال دیدن یک­بازی جذاب هم در این بازی بسیار پایین است)؟ با این حساب باید دید چرا تماشاچیان و هوداران این­گونه بدون توجه به فاصله خانه و شهرشان از آزادی به این ورزشگاه می­آیند و سختی سفرهای درون شهری و برون شهری را به جان می­خرند؟ در علم اقتصاد مساله مشابهی با حضور این­چنینی هواداران در ورزشگاه وجود دارد: “پارادوکس رای­دهندگان”. این پارادوکس یا معما که چرا خیلی از مردم زحمت رای دادن را به خود می­دهند در حالی که اگر بنا بود بر طبق یک تحلیل هزینه- فایده و معیارهای عقلانیت اقتصادی عمل کنند واقعا نباید رای دهند. این­که، اغلبِ مشارکت­کنندگان در انتخابات تصور می­کنند هزینه مشارکت بیش از منافع احتمالی آن است و حتی اگر منافع همگانی هم وجود داشته باشد به دلیل پدیده سواری مجانی می­توانند از آن منافع بهره ببرند، فرد را وسوسه می­کند تا از حضور در انتخابات دوری کند به این امید که دیگران جای خالی او را پر می­کنند و او هم مجانی موج­سواری خواهد کرد. بنابراین، در مورد فوتبال پرسپولیس- استقلال هم اگر همین تحلیل صادق بود، هر هواداری صبر می­کرد تا دیگران به ورزشگاه بروند و تشویق کنند و اگر تیم مورد علاقه­شان پیروز شود او هم از منافع این بُرد بهره­مند خواهد شد. اما چرا هواداران که از خدای آمون و لنگیامون نیز در این بازی نمی­گذرند، این­ تحلیل را ندارند و بدون توجه به هزینه حضور در ورزشگاه و عدم اطمینان از منافع احتمالی به ورزشگاه می­آیند؟ پاسخ من برگرفته از یکی از آرای جذاب اقتصاددان برجسته، آلبرت هیرشمن است. هیرشمن معتقد است: “کارهایی که … هیچ­ تضمینی برای ثمره موفقیت­آمیزشان درکار نیست به غایت شکوهمند تصور می­شوند: تلاش حالا به تلاش برای حصول خوشبختی بدل می­شود و انگار که به جبران این بی­اطمینانی است که این تلاش با احساس برخورداری از تجربه­ای مطلوب توام می­شود”. به عبارت دیگر، تلاش برای حصول خوشبختی و وصول خوشبختی در این موارد چندان تفاوتی برای کنش­گر، هوادار یا رای­دهنده ندارد و همین دلیل باعث حضور او در ورزشگاه یا پای صندوق رای می­شود. گویی با حضور در پای صندوق رای یا ورزشگاه رای­دهنده یا هوادار احساس می­کند که او می­تواند در جهت حرکت جامعه یا بازی به سوی نتیجه مطلوب تاثیرگذار باشد. به گفته هیرشمن به نظر هوادار فوتبالی یا رای­دهنده “برگزیدن سواری مجانی در چنین شرایطی عین این است که از خوردن وعده غذای لذیذی امتناع کنیم و در عوض قرص سیرکننده­ای را قورت دهیم که حتی خیلی هم اثربخش نیست”. برای فرد، “مشارکت، درواقع سپری است در مقابل انفعال و سستی و بزدلی و رکود فکری”. هوادار گمان می­کند اگر به ورزشگاه برود در متن جامعه فوتبال قرار گرفته و هرگز وصله ترس و بزدلی به او نمی­چسبد. همین خیال باعث می­شود تا او تصور کند می­تواند افراد هم­فکر خود را به هم بپیوندد و همگان را جهت منفعت مشترک موردنظرشان سامان­دهی کند. اما در مورد هواداران حاضر در بازی پرسپولیس و استقلال، خیال سامان­دهی آنان خیالی واهی است. همان-طور که اصلاح­طلبان در ایران نمی­توانند آرای خود را سامان­دهی کنند، پرسپولیس- استقلال هم نمی­توانند هوادارن خود را به یک شکل هماهنگ کنند. تنها گه­گاه و در تک­و­توکی از داربی­ها، هواداران یک تیم، یک­دست در جهت منافع تیم، برد، هماهنگ می­شوند. تنها در یک لحظه این صدهزار نفر سکوت را رعایت می­کنند.  تمامی جامعه­شناسان و اقتصاددانانی که در کنج کتاب­خانه­های خود کتاب می­خوانند نباید از چنین محیط­هایی غافل شوند چراکه جامعه و شیوه کنش و رفتار بازی­گران جامعه در جایی مانند ورزشگاه آزادی قابل رویت و شناخت است.   

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