سال ۱۳۸۷ در حالی به پایان خود نزدیک میشود که شاید اقتصاد ایران دیگر چنین روزهایی را هرگز به خود نبیند. وقایع اقتصادی این سال تاثیرات مهمی بر آینده اقتصاد ایران خواهد داشت و توجه و شناخت دقیق آنها میتواند در سال ۱۳۸۸ راهگشای سیاستگذاری اقتصادی باشد. در سال ۱۳۸۷، قیمت نفت در اردیبشهت ماه به ۱۱۷ دلار برای هر بشکه رسید و اگرچه احمدینژاد آن را عددی فریبنده میدانست، این دلارهای نفتی بود که به اقتصاد ایران سرازیر شد. اما این آخرین رکورد قیمت نفت نبود و قیمت نفت در تیر ماه ۱۳۸۷ به ۱۴۰ دلار برای هر بشکه رسید و همگان منتظر بودند تا آقای احمدی نژاد آن را بر سر سفرههای مردم بیاورد. مدیر عامل شرکت ملی نفت ایران اعلام کرد که درآمد نفت در ۵ ماهه اول سال ۵/۲۹ میلیارد دلار بوده است. اما پس از آن بود که قیمت نفت سیر نزولی خود را آغاز کرد و برای نخستین بار پس از شروع سال به ۱۰۵ دلار کاهش یافت. اما در آبان ماه بود که قیمت نفت به ۵۶ دلار رسید و پس از آن نیز همچنان به سیر نزولی خود ادامه داد و به کمتر از ۴۰ دلار رسید. رئیس کل بانک مرکزی میگفت در صورت ادامه کاهش قیمت نفت، درآمد ارزی ایران ۵۴ میلیارد دلار کاهش خواهد یافت که احتمالا همینطورهم شده است. آنچه مسلم است با داشتن چنین درآمد نفتی نه دولت احمدی نژاد که هر دولت دیگری نیز بخش عمده منابع بودجه خود را از ذخایر ارزی تامین میکرد که البته در دولت نهم نیز همینگونه شد. در بودجه سال ۱۳۸۷ نزدیک به ۷۰ میلیارد دلار صادرات نفت وجود داشته است. در نتیجه همین امر، واردات نیز بسیار زیاد بود، ۶۰% واردات هم کالاهای مصرفی بود که قرارداد ورود ۶ میلیون تن گندم شاخصترین آنها بود. در ماه هشتم سال رقم واردات برابر با ۳۸ میلیارد دلار بود. گزارشات دیوان محاسبات و مجلس در خصوص انحرافات بودجهای دولت و ورود غیرقانونی بنزین نیز راه به جایی نبرد.
از همان آغاز سال ۱۳۸۷ میان متولیان بازار کار و بازار پول بحثی به وجود آمد که تا پایان سال نیز این مباحثات ادامه داشت: در اوایل اردیبهشت ماه بود که محمد جهرمی در یک نامه جنجالی، بانک مرکزی را به اعمال سیاستهای ضد تولیدی محکوم کرد. در این میان داوود دانش جعفری وزیر اقتصاد نیز با انتقاد شدید از سیاستهای دولت استعفا داد و حسین صمصامی جای او را گرفت تا هماهنگی بیشتری در تیم اقتصادی دولت ایجاد شود. رئیس جمهور نیز در این روزها به شدت در عرصه سیاستهای پولی دخالت میکرد و از مخالفین کاهش نرخ سود بانکی خواست تا اگر نمیتوانند این موضوع را بپذیرند میدان را خالی کنند و از سر راه او کنار بروند. بعد از این بود که وزیر کار در نامهای از رئیس جمهور خواست یا او یا مظاهری را برکنار کند که البته منظورش این بود که مظاهری را برکنار کند. به هر حال مظاهری هم رفت تا تیم اقتصادی دولت نهم یکدستتر شود و در نهایت، رئیس جدید بانک مرکزی در در دی ماه خبر از تعدیل سیاستهای نظارتی بانک مرکزی داد و این یعنی رسیدن جهرمی به خواستههایش. از دیگر مباحثات میان وزارت کار و بانک مرکزی، طرح بنگاههای زود بازده بود که سرانجام هم نتیجه آن مشخص نشد.
در سال ۱۳۸۷، نرخ تورم، در برخی محلات مانند نارمک پایین بود، اما بانک مرکزی در گزارش تیرماه خود اعلام کرد که نرخ تورم به ۲۱ درصد رسیده است. البته رئیس جمهور معتقد است که این نرخ اشتباه است. جالبتر این بود که نرخ تورم پس از آن از سوی بانک مرکزی ۲۷ درصد اعلام شد و در آبان ماه هم به ۳/۲۴ درصد رسید. البته آخرین مصاحبه تلویزیونی رئیس جمهور باز هم حاکی از آن بود که ایشان میگفت براساس سبد کالایی مورد نظر ما نرخ تورم خیلی پایین است.
در سال ۱۳۸۷ دولت در راستای دستیابی به اهداف خود، هیات امنای صندوق ذخیره ارزی را منحل و وظایف این هیات را به کمیسیون اقتصادی دولت محول کرد. البته این واقعه چندان شگفتآور نبود چراکه ۱۸ شورای مختلف اعم از پول و اعتبار، عالی تامین اجتماعی و … نیز منحل شده بودند تا امورات مملکت بهتر اداره شود. سازمان برنامه نیز پس از ۶۰ سال سابقه تغییر شکل داد و معاونت راهبردی و برنامهریزی ریاست جمهوری نام گرفت تا روسای سازمان برنامه و بودجه در استانها به معاون استاندار تبدیل شوند و این باز هم یک قدم جدی به سوی عدم شفافیت بودجه بود. چندین بار هم نمایندگان مجلس در برابر خواست دولت برای برداشت از حساب ذخیره ارزی برای خشکسالی و خرید بنزین مخالفت کردند.
در این سال و در مرداد ماه، شمسالدین حسینی از مجلس رای اعتماد گرفت و به وزارت اقتصاد رسید که همان روزها دولت و بانک مرکزی بر سهم سهم تورم وارداتی در تورم داخلی بحث داشتند. پس از این امر، و با اجرای قانون مالیات بر ارزش افزوده، میان بازار و دولت تضاد شدیدی در گرفت که در نتیجه آن اصناف و بازاریان در بازارهای طلا، فرش و پارچه در تهران، تبریز و اصفهان بازار را تعطیل کردند. این اعتصابات چهار روز ادامه داشت و نتیجه هم از قبل مشخص بود. هیچکس یارای آن را ندارد تا در برابر قدرت بازاریان ایرانی مقابله کند. پس از آن قانون مالیات بر ارزش افزوده لغو شد تا پس از طی مراحلی دوباره به اجرا در بیاید که هنوز تا پایان سال تکلیف آن مشخص نشده است.
در خرداد ماه سال ۱۳۸۷، محمدرضا باهنر نخستین کسی بود که هرچند یار احمدینژاد بود اما شدیدا از عملکرد دولت انتقاد کرد. البته مظاهری هم پیش از او این کار را کرده بود. اما زمانیکه مراجع و علما از گرانیها انتقاد کردند احمدی نژاد واکنش تندی به این انتقادات نشان داد و آنها را نپذیرفت و گفت در محله ما همه چیز ارزان است. نرخ تورم باز هم به بحث روز روزنامهها و محافل اقتصادی تبدیل شد. گرفتاریهای اقتصاد ایران در این سال کم بود که بحران مالی جهانی نیز به آن اضافه شد. احمدینژاد از اقتصاددانان حوزه و دانشگاه یاری طلبید تا تبعات بحران برای اقتصاد ایران کاهش یابد و در اواخر سال بود که کارگروهی برای مقابله با بحران در دولت تشکیل شد.
شاید مهمترین و آخرین واقعه اقتصادی سال ۱۳۸۷ بحث هدفمندسازی یارانهها و حذف یارانه حاملهای انرژی بود که احمدینژاد قصد اجرای آن را داشت. اما مجلس این لایحه را رد کرد و هدفمندسازی یارانهها ماند برای دولت بعد. علت رد این لایحه بیشتر سیاسی بود تا اقتصادی. در مجلس دلار ۹۵۰ تومانی در کمیسیون تلفیق تصویب شد و یک جنگ لفظی میان رئیس جمهور و رئیس مجلس در گرفت.
سال ۱۳۸۷ با انبوهی از وقایع اقتصادی به پایان میرسد و سال ۱۳۸۸ شروع خواهد شد. آنچه مسلم است در سال ۱۳۸۸ درآمدهای نفتی مانند سال گذشته نخواهد بود. برای مثال در سال ۱۳۸۷ سهم صادرات نفت در بودجه ۷۰ میلیارد دلار بود که در سال ۱۳۸۸ به ۳۰ میلیارد دلار کاهش خواهد یافت و دولت باید برای تحقق درآمدهای خود راهحلهای جدیدی را بیابد. یکی از این راهحلها اعلام مالیات جدیدی است با عنوان مالیات بر تسعیر داراییها و بدهیهای ارزی بانک مرکزی، که کارشناسان معتقدند این مالیات توجیه اقتصادی ندارد. ظاهرا پیش بینی دولت آن است که از این راه نزدیک به ۳ میلیارد دلار درآمد کسب کند. البته بحث بر سر بودجه و شفافیت کمتر آن نیز مطرح است. بدعت و نوآوری دولت برای بودجه ۱۳۸۸ در قالب ۳۹ ردیف و ارائه آن به مجلس، نه تنها از شفافیت بودجه کاسته، بلکه پاسخگویی را نیز کمتر خواهد کرد. این عدم شفافیت نیز دست سیاستمدار را برای دنبال کردن سیاستهایش بازتر میگذارد که این امر حاکی از محدودیت ملایمتر بودجه است. در بودجه سال ۱۳۸۸ پیشبینی شده که دولت از محل فروش شرکتهای دولتی ۵۵ هزار میلیارد تومان درآمد کسب کند که به نظر میرسد کمی بحث برانگیز باشد. عملکرد دولت در سال گذشته نشان میدهد که دستیابی به چنین هدفی دشوار است.
در سال ۱۳۸۸ و در ادامه نیمه دوم سال ۱۳۸۷، بازار مسکن با رکود همراه خواهد بود و اقتصاد ایران دستبهگریبان تورم. البته انتخابات ریاست جمهوری نیز بر حوزه اقتصاد سایه افکنده و باید تا خرداد ماه منتظر ماند و دید که چه بر سر اقتصاد میآید. خوش به حال دندانپزشکان که ناشی از گرانی فقط به خودشان فکر میکنند و وای به حال اقتصاددانان که ناشی از تورم باید به جامعه فکر کنند.
سال خوب و سبزی داشته باشید.
سلام آقای فرهادی
این پستت خیلی به دلم نشست
خیلی براش زحمت کشیده بودی دستت درد نکنه
این تیکه هم عالی بود
در سال ۱۳۸۷، نرخ تورم، در برخی محلات مانند نارمک پایین بود، اما بانک مرکزی در گزارش تیرماه خود اعلام کرد که نرخ تورم به ۲۱ درصد رسیده است.
سال خوبی داشته باشی
سال نوی شما هم مبارک! امیدوارم سال جدید پر از آرامش برای شما باشد.
واقعا نوشته هایتان جالب است، راحت میشود فهمید که مثلا اخیرا دندان پزشک رفته اید
عطیه جان این جمله متعلق به کینز است و ربطی به رفتن من به دندانپزشکی ندارد.
سال نو مبارک
ق ولی به کاربردن این جمله کینز در این پست
قطعا نمی تواند تصادفی باشد
اولا من با این آقای محمد بسیار موافقم. گرچه گاهی به دنبال غلط دیکته گرفتن از من هست اما این بار من باهاش موافقم. البته من چند وقت پیش یک کامنتی نوشته بودم غلط داشت ولی خبری از ایشون نبود.
بعدش هم خوب آدم میگرده جمله های آدمهای مهم رو متناسب با روز و حال خودش بیان میکنه دیگه. غیر از اینه؟؟ مثلا من همیشه این جمله رو میگم ” همه ما در بلند مدت خواهیم مرد.”
تازشم مطمئن هستم در آینده نزدیک در این وبلاگ پستی در مورد پزشکان و دندانپزشکان خواهم خواند.
راستی کینز هم مگه دندانپزشک هم میرفته؟
سلام به خانم عطیه
ببخشین ولی فک کنم کینز و فرهادپور
“به “دندانپزشکی” رفتن و نه “دندانپزشک
سلام بر استاد عزیز
دانشجوی اقتصاد هستم و فعلا تا مهر که تکلیف ارشد معلوم بشه وقت ازادم رو می خوام اساسی مطالعه کنم، کتابهای روش شناسی بلاگ و خرد تقرب ریاضی هندرسن رو گرفتم ولی خیلی واسم سنگین بودن. خواستم کتابهایی رو که به نظرتوی مناسب اند بهم معرفی کنید.متشکرم.
سال نو مبارک
آقای محمد
در زبان فارسی فرقی نمیکند که شما از کلمه دندانپزشک یا داندانپزشکی استفاده کنید. هر دو جمله درست است:
آقای فرهادی به دندانپزشک رفته است
آقای کینز به دندانپزشکی رفته است
در زبانهای غیر فارسی هم این متداول است. اما باز هم ممنون از اینکه یادآوری کردید.
ایراد نگارشی من در آن نظر استفاده دو بار از کلمه “هم” بود.
عیدتان هم مبارک!
زبان های غیر فارسی رو شما قطعا بهتر از من میدونین ولی در زبان
فارسی عبارت معمول، “پیش” یا “نزد” دندانپزشک رفتن است.
عید شما هم مبارک.
آقای محمد
حالا که صاخب وبلاگ نیست در غیابش یه کم با هم در مورد فارسی چت کنیم به جای اوضاع اقتصادی ایران بد نیست
شما در جمله اول من به کلمه مگر دقت نکردید که یک آوای صوتی هست و جمله درست میشه
راستی کینز هم “مگه” دندانپزشک میرفته؟
اما در کامنت دوم به کلمه ربط و حرف اضافه “به” دقت نکردید، کلمه “به” در اینجا به معنی همان نزد و پیش هست. در فرهنگ معین و لغت نامه دهخدا هم همین نکته ذکر شده است.
لینک زیر رو ببینید
http://www.loghatnaameh.com/dehkhodaworddetail-0059e5f46ddd432da4379af2a6a862ad-fa.html
به هر حال تسلط بر زبان مادری چیز عجیبی نیست. در مورد زبان های غیر فارسی هم قطعا شما از من مسلط تر هستید، من الکی یه چیزی گفتم شما جدی نگیرید
باز هم عیدتان مبارک
در ضمن کلمه صاحب رو هم اشتباهی نوشتم صاخب
عذر میخواهم
کاملا درسته.ممنون
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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