یکسالی است که مباحث مربوط به قیمت مسکن را دنبال میکنم. مدتی است که بازار مسکن با رکود شدید مواجه شده است. شنیدههایم حاکی از آن است که تعداد پروانههای صادر شده در سه ماهه اول سال جاری نسبت به همین دوره در دو سال گذشته نزدیک به ۵۰% کاهش یافته است. طبیعی است که در این شرایط سیاستگذاران نگران و در فکر این موضوع باشند که چگونه میتوان مسائل و مشکلات طرف عرضه را حل کرد. بدون شک ایجاد انگیزه برای سرمایهگذارن و انبوهسازان و رفع دشواریهای پیشروی آنان میتواند به آنها جهت بازگرداندن رونق به بازار کمک کند. اما چرا رکود بخش مسکن در ایران هیچگاه با کاهش قیمتها همراه نیست؟ در اقتصاد امریکا، پس از وقوع بحران مالی اخیر که با ترکیدن حباب مسکن آغاز شد قیمتهای مسکن بین ۳۰ تا ۵۰ درصد کاهش یافت. اما چرا در اقتصاد ایران با وجود رکود حاکم بر بازار مسکن قیمتها کاهش نمییابد؟ چراکه هزینه نگهداری یک مسکن خالی به عنوان یک دارایی و نفروختن آن، در اقتصاد ایران برای سرمایهگذار یا صاحب مسکن خیلی کم است. البته علت این امر هم ساده است چراکه هر چند سال یکبار که قیمت مسکن افزایش مییابد به اندازه ۱۰ سالی به فرد سود میرساند. سوال این است که سرمایهگذار پول خود را در چه حوزهای سرمایهگذاری میکرد تا بتواند ظرف یک یا دوسال چنین سود بادآوردهای را که همه زحمت حاصل شدن آن را فقط و فقط افزایش نقدینگی بازار متحمل شده بهدست بیاورد؟
یکی دیگر از نکات جالب و البته موارد شکست بازار مسکن در اقتصاد ایران این است که هر چه تعداد بنگاههای معاملاتی فعال در بازار افزایش مییابد قیمت مسکن نه تنها کاهش نمییابد بلکه افزایش هم مییابد. مشاهده این مدعا هم چندان دشوار نیست. زمانی که از طریق روزنامه همشهری با یکی از مالکین مسکن تماس میگیرید قیمت مورد نظر حداقل ۱۰ درصد کمتر از قیمت همان ملک در بنگاه است. بنابراین عرضهکنندگان مسکن در بازار مسکن ایران تقریبا با ضررهای کلان روبرو نمیشوند و تنها ضرر آنها این است در برخی سالها افزایش قیمت به نسبت سالهای رویایی کمتر است و همین باعث ناراحتیشان میشود. اما در بازار مسکن ایران گویی متقاضی و در نتیجه تقاضا هیچ نقشی در تعیین قیمت ندارد، اکنون وقتی متقاضی به بنگاه معاملات ملکی که بهتر است نام آن را بنگاه افزایش قیمت ملک بگذارند مراجعه کند فقط میتواند بگوید که خانهای با چه قیمتی میخواهد. یعنی او اصلا نمیتواند وارد چانهزنی برای تعیین قیمت شود مگر شرایط اولیه مورد نظر عرضهکننده را داشته باشد. حتما متاهل باشد و کارمند دولت. چک کارمندی داشته باشد.
تحلیل ضعیفی بود.
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