بخش مسکن اقتصاد ایران یکسالی است که به رکودی نسبتا عمیق فرورفته و برای بیدار شدنش از این خواب بخشهای عرضه و تقاضا نیازمند سیاستهای اقتصادی خاصی هستند. برای بررسی این موضوع در ابتدا رابطه صنعت ساختمان با سایر صنایع را بهطور مختصر تشریح میکنم. صنعت ساختمان یا همان بخش مسکن تحتتاثیر سایر صنایع است. درواقع، تقاضا برای ساختوساز در بخش مسکن بهطور غیرمستقیم تقاضا برای محصولات صنایع مختلف است که نقش کالاهای واسطه را در تولید مسکن ایفا میکنند. بنابراین بهمنظور درک هرچه بهتر پیامدهای لایحه هدفمندسازی یارانهها و سرانجام حذف آنها بر بخش مسکن باید ابتدا نگاهی اجمالی به صنایع و چگونگی تاثیرپذیری آنها از این لایحه داشت. در یک تقسیمبندی کلی صنایع بر اساس سهم انرژی در ستانده در قالب چهار گروه کلی تقسیمبندی میشوند. در ذیل ضمن ارائه این تقسیمبندی تنها به صنایع مرتبط با بخش مسکن در هر گروه اشاره شده است:
گروه اول: صنایعی که سهم انرژی در ستانده آنها بیشتر از۱۰% است، صنایع آجر و آلومینیم در این گروه قرار میگیرند.
گروه دوم: صنایعی که سهم انرژی در ستانده آنها بین ۵% تا ۱۰% است؛ صنایع سیمان، آهک و گچ در این گروه قرار میگیرند.
گروه سوم: صنایعی که سهم انرژی در ستانده آنها بین ۲% تا ۵% است؛ تولید محصولات شیشهای بهجز شیشه جام، ساخت کالا از مواد سرامیکی، برش و شکل دادن و پرداخت سنگ، تولید سایر محصولات گلی و سرامیکی غیرنسوز، تولید محصولات اولیه آهن و فولاد در این گروه قرار میگیرند.
گروه چهارم: صنایعی که سهم انرژی در ستانده آنها کمتر از ۲% است؛ این گروه شامل ساخت محصولات از مواد سرامیکی نسوز، تولید مصنوعات نجاری و قفسهبندی و دروپنجرهسازی، ساخت کالاهای بتونی سیمانی و گچی، تولید لامپهای الکتریکی و تجهیزات روشنایی، تولید اجاق و کوره و مشعلهای کوره، تولید مولدهای بخار بهجز دیگهای آبگرم و حرارت مرکزی، تولید لامپها و لامپهای لولهای الکترونیکی است (مآخذ: مرکز آمار ایران، آمارگیری سال ۱۳۸۵).
بنابراین در ابتدا با حذف یارانههای انرژی قیمت سیمان، آجر، گچ و آهک، آلومینیوم و آهن و فولاد بهعنوان مصالح ساختمانی افزایش خواهند یافت. افزایش قیمت این محصولات میتواند تقاضا برای واردات را افزایش دهد. اما در سالهای گذشته واردات مصالح ساختمانی با محدودیتهای فراوانی روبرو بوده است. لذا در شرایط عدم امکان افزایش واردات، فعالان بخش مسکن چارهای جز افزایش قیمت کالای تولیدی خود، یعنی مسکن، ندارند. بنابراین هدفمندسازی یارانهها افزایش قیمت بخش مسکن را به همراه خواهد داشت. همان چیزی که در شرایط رکود ادعا میشود راه برونرفت از آن است. بخش عرضه مسکن همیشه انگیزهای برای حضور در این بازار میخواهد و آن انگیزه همیشه و همهوقت افزایش قیمت است و امید به کسب سود. در غیراینصورت فعالان بخش عرضه مسکن هرگز وارد این بازار نخواهند شد. اما متقاضیان مسکن. سفتهبازان و سوداگران اقتصاد ایران که بخش مسکن ماوایی همیشگی برایشان بوده و هست، بدون شک از افزایش قیمت شادمان میشوند و بدشان نمیآید که در شرایط نامطلوب بودن بازارهای سرمایه و سرمایهگذاری در سایر بخشها رو به سوی این خانه جاودانه سودآور بیاورند. اما متقاضیان خرید مسکن برای مصرف بدون شک از افزایش قیمت مسکن فقط یک منعفت کسب میکنند و آن این است که نمیتوانند صاحب خانه شوند. کمدرآمدها هم که در شرایط رکود جایی در بازار مسکن نداشتند چه برسد به رونق بازار که یعنی افزایش قیمت.
اما باید منتظر ماند و دید که آیا بخش مسکن با افزایش قیمتی که در مصالح ساختمانی رخ خواهد داد از این رکود خارج خواهد شد؟ تجربه نشان از آن دارد که سرعت افزایش قیمت در بازار مسکن خیلی بیشتر از سرعت افزایش درآمد ناشی از هدفمندی یارانهها برای طبقات متوسط و کمدرآمدها خواهد بود و اولویت بسیاری از کالاها برای حاشیهنشاینان بیش از مسکن است. بنابراین اگر رونق یعنی افزایش قیمت، پاسخ به پرسش فوق مثبت است.
آیا حذف یارانهها باعث رونق بخش مسکن میشود؟
۱۹۹ Responses to “آیا حذف یارانهها باعث رونق بخش مسکن میشود؟”
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من خودم یکی ازمتقاضیان مسکنی هستم که بنابر آپشن مالی که برای خودم نوشتم با قیمتهای کنونی سال دیگه نیمه دوم سال دیگه میتونم خونه بخرم ولی حرف من اینه که اگه قیمتها بالا بره منه کارمند دوباره ۱۰ سال عقب می افتم میخوام بگم این نامردیه ناعدالتیه الان توانایی خریدم تا یکسال دیگه تامین میشه ویکسال زمان کمیه اما عدم توانایی خرید تا حداقل ۵ سال خیلی ظلمه خیلی حالم بده بعضی از کارشناسان حامی دولت خلاف نظر من وشما را دارند میگن دولت به بخش صنایع که قیمت تولیدات ساختمانیشون میره بالا بودجه تخصیص میده که هزینه های انرژیشون تامین بشه در نتیجه محصولاتشون گرون نمیشه در نتیجه خونه هم گرون نمیشه نظر شما چی هست ؟ با تشکر
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
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Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 kinds of people: current Zune proprietors who’re thinking about upgrading, the ones attempting to decide from a Zune as well as an ipod device. (You will find other gamers worth thinking about available, such as the The new sony Personal stereo X, however i hope this provides you sufficient info to create an educated decision from the Zune versus gamers apart from the ipod device line too.)
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.