مسکن
نگارش شده در تاريخ : ۱۹-۰۸-۱۳۸۸ | نويسنده : محمد رضا فرهادیپور | دسته : اقتصاد۲۷۷ Responses to “مسکن”
کتابهای من
اجتماعی
اقتصادی
- IRPD ONLINE JOURNAL
- احمد سیف
- اقتصاد خرد، بازار و خانوار
- اقتصاد در هزاره سوم
- اقتصادانه
- البرز- نقد اقتصاد سیاسی
- اندیشه اقتصاد
- اکونومیست
- ایران ریسک
- حامد غنایی
- حامد قدوسی
- خصوصی سازی
- دوست دار سقراط
- رستاک
- روزبه حسینی
- روزنامه دنیای اقتصاد
- سعید پوردلیر
- مجله برنامه و بودجه
- محمد قائد
- موسسه دین و اقتصاد
- نسل اقتصاد
- نوشتارهایی در مورد علم اقتصاد
- نوشته های من
- نگاه آزاد
- هما کاتوزیان
- پساسرمایه داری
- پیمانه
- چارچوب -حمید بوستانی فر
- کاتالاکسی
- کافه اقتصاد
- کسبوکار نرمافزار
- گذری بر اقتصاد
اقتصادی خارجی
- Dani Rodrik blog
- david warsh
- Economic Games
- economics theorem
- freakonomics
- Murat Iyigun
- Pluralist Economics Review
- post-autistic economics
- Raghu Rajan
- Roger E. Alcaly
- Tim Harford
- آرنولد کلینگ
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- اقتصاد و فمینیسم
- اکونومیکس راندتیبل
- ایکان بروزر
- تیلور کوئن و آلکس تاباروک
- جفری هاچسون
- جوزف استیگلیتز
- دئیردر مک کلاسکی
- دارون عجم اغلو
- دنی رودریک
- دیوید الرمن
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- نیو اکونومیست
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- کافه TPM
- کافه هایک
- گری بکر و ریچارد پوسنر
- گریگوری منکیو
با احترام به مترجمین ولی خواندن این متن سخت بود، اصلا روان نبود.
با سلام خدمت جناب فرهادی پور
بسیار خوشحالم که افرادی مثل شما هنوز وجود دارند که حس و حال تحلیل اقتصادی رو دارند. با عرض پوزش ذکر چند نکته ای رو در خصوص مطلب فوق لازم می دونم که به خدمتتون عرض می کنم:
۱٫ در سطر سوم نوشتید که بخش مسکن تحت تاثیر سایر بخش هاست اما در ادامه، توضیحتون نشون می ده که می خواید بگید که سایر بخش ها شدیداً تحت تاثیر بخش مسکن هستند و البته درست هم همینه.
۲٫ بیان داشتید که با هدفمند سازی یارانه ها دست اندرکاران بخش مسکن قیمت را بالا خواهند برد. البته شما خوب می دونید که برای افزایش قیمت مسکن لازمه که بخش تقاضا قیمت بالاتری را پیشنهاد کنه و در شرایط عدم وجود تقاضا در قیمت های عرضه عملاً معامله ای انجام نخخواهد شد. این قانون تقاضاست که با افزایش قیمت تقاضا کاهش می یابد مگر آنکه جابجایی یا انتقال تقاضا اتفاق بیفتد. بررسی ها و شواهد نشون میده که در بخش مصرفی امکان انتقال تقاضا وجود نداره. مخصوصاً با هدفمندسازی یارانه ها که نور علی نور خواهد بود. نتیجه آنکه تمام چشم امید تولیدکنندگان به سفته بازی در بازار است. اینکه سفته بازی چگونه در بازار شروع شده و شتاب می گیره بسیار مورد بحث قرار گرفته. به قول جناب یزدانی سفته بازی از بازار زمین شروع میشود. به قول بر و بچه های دولتی از جانب بانک ها و بخش مالیه. به قول شما و دوستان از افزایش مخارج دولت و حجم پول شروع میشه. به قول اهالی وزارت که اصلاً قولی وجود نداره!!! و تحلیل من که تورم انتظاری موثرتره. حالا این تورم انتظاری چگونه شکل می گیره بر اساس بررسی من کاملاً وابسته به رونق خرید و فروش مصرفی مسکن هست. البته باید اضافه کنم که منظور از رونق، صرفاً کمی تکون خوردن بازار مصرفیه نه یک بازار کاملاً گرم. تو رونق اخیر، قیمتها اونقدر بالا رفته که بعیده حالا حالاها تقاضا مصرفی واکنش لازم برای فعال شدن سفته بازها رو از خودش نشون بده. بنابراین بر این اساس بخش سفته بازی (با فرض عدم دخالت دولت در بازار و عدم افزایش تعداد و مقدار تسهیلات خرید مسکن) تمایلی به ورود به بازار رو نداره. حالا با اجرای هدفمندی یارانه ها یک کمی رونق در بخش مصرفی هم از بین میره و بنابراین رکود بخش مسکن عمیقتر خواهد شد.
۳٫ یک فرضیه (البته اثبات نشده) هم وجود داره و اون اینه که بخش عرضه مسکن در ایران خود گاهی اوقات سفته باز از آب در می آد و این یعنی عرضه و تقاضا تو یک کاسه هستند. (البته باید گفت در دوران رکود درصد نسبتاً بالایی از کل بازار و در دوران رونق درصد نسبتاً کمتری از بازار رو شکل میده.) نتیجه اینکه زیاد لازم نیست نگران سمت عرضه باشیم. بهتره به تقاضا نگاه کنیم. نتیجه دوم از این فرض اینه که همیشه میزان نیاز و تولید مسکن ایران از هم فاصله زیاد خواهند داشت.
۴٫ لابد با خودتون میگید که این همه حرف زدی خوب نتیجه من و شما که یکی شده. “اوضاع خرابتر می شه”. باید بگم حرفتون درسته. اما منظور من اینه که از هر تحلیل یک راه حل جدا بدست می آد. من صرفاً راه حل حاصل از تحلیل خودم رو می گم:
باید سهم دولت در بازار مسکن زیاد بشه. چه در تقاضا و چه در عرضه
اما مشکل اساسی اینه که دولت نه اونقدر داره که که بتونه تولید کننده بشه و نه اونقدری که بتونه برای فقرای مسکن خونه ارائه کنه و از همه مهمتر که دولت در یک کشور توسعه نیافته مثل ایران اساساً دولت خوبی نیست. پس اول باید خودشو درست کنه و بعد بخش مسکن. نتیجه مهم اونه که فعلاً بهتره دست به بخش مسکن نزنه و فقط به فکر فقیرترها باشه و یکم از مشکلشون رو حل بکنه.(اصلاً به نظر من بهتره فعلاً به هیچ چیزی دست نزنه حتی قیمتها و یارانه ها)
شاید یک راهش هم گسترش واحدهای استیجاری در شهرها باشه.
به هر حال علاقه ما هم به اقتصاد مسکنه و از مسکنی حرف زدن لذت می بریم. ببخشید که سرتون رو درد آوردم.
با تشکر
اسماعیل
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
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