امکان‌(نا)پذیری تمرین برای رویارویی با زلزله اقتصادی

چند سالی است که موضوع زلزله در سراسر کشور به شدت مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. ترفند دولت و سایر نهادهای بخش عمومی هم برای مقابله با زلزله تجهیز منابع و انجام مانورهایی است که به شبیه‌سازی زلزله می‌پردازند و می‌کوشند تا با تمرین در این شرایط خودساخته خود را برای روز واقعه آماده کنند. اما مشکل این است که تشخیص زمان و مکان دقیق وقوع زلزله امری بسیار دشوار است. زندگی اقتصادی مردم ایران نیز در سال ۱۳۸۶ با یک زلزله اقتصادی، محدودیت در مصرف بنزین، تکانی جدی خورد. اما نکته جالب در زلزله اقتصادی سال ۱۳۸۶ این بود که چند ساعت پیش از وقوع آن کارشناسان خبر از وقوع آن دادند! طبیعی بود که مردم به محض آگاهی دست‌پاچه شدند و به پمپ بنزین‌ها هجوم بردند. یکی می‌کوشید باک ماشینش را پر کند و دیگری سعی داشت علاوه‌بر باک، چند گالن هم پر کند و در انبار خانه‌اش نگهداری کند. اما گویی همه غافل از این بودند که آثار این زلزله از فردا برای همیشه با زندگی‌شان خواهد بود و از این پس باید بکوشند خود را با شرایط جدید تطبیق دهند. درست به همین دلیل بود که برخی می‌گفتند ای کاش مردم خبر از وقوع افزایش قیمت بنزین نداشتند و بهتر بود که صبح وقتی از خواب بیدار می‌شدند از وقوع زلزله نیز باخبر می‌شدند، دیگر آن همه ماجرای پیرامون بنزین هم اتفاق نمی‌افتاد. اما مهم‌تر از گران شدن خودن بنزین و کارتی شدن مصرف آن عواقب آن بر قیمت سایر کالاها است که در اقتصاد ایران نیز چنین پیامدی کم نبوده و نیست. برخی هم می‌گویند باخبر و بی‌خبر بودن از این دگرگونی‌های اقتصادی اهمیت چندانی ندارد و این مردم هستند که باید خود را با شرایط جدید تطبیق دهند.
بار دیگر اقتصاد ایران با واقعه‌ای روبرو خواهد بود که از قضا باز هم همه از وقوع آن با خبر شده‌اند. چقدر این کارشناسان اقتصادی توان‌مند هستند و قدرت پیش‌بینی دارند! اما نکته این‌جاست که چرا این‌بار تمرین و آماده‌سازی برای این رویارویی با این زلزله صورت نمی‌گیرد. منظورم لایحه هدف‌مندسازی یارانه‌ها است که محمد خاتمی هم روزی که ریاست جمهوریش به پایان رسید از این‌که نتوانسته این لایحه را به سرانجام برساند رضایت نداشت و حسرت می‌خورد. حالا دولت دهم به کمک مجلس این لایحه را آماده اجرا کرده است. این روزها در تلویزیون‌های نصب شده در سطح شهر می‌بینیم که از سال بعد بنزین تک قیمتی می‌شود، چیزی شبیه به موضوع بنزین در سال ۱۳۸۶٫ قیمت نان تغییر خواهد کرد. یکی می‌پرسد مسکن بخریم بهتر است یا بسازیم؟ یکی می‌گفت می‌گویند قرص سردرد چند سال دیگر آن قدر گران می‌شود که دیگر نمی‌توان به راحتی سردرد گرفت و مثل نقل استامینوفن مصرف کرد. همه همانند کسی می‌مانند که از وقوع زلزله باخبرند اما نمی‌دانند باید چه کنند؟ تمامی بخش‌های اقتصادی تحت‌تاثیر اجرای این لایحه مهم قرار خواهد گرفت. اما تمرین برای رویارویی با شرایطی که بعد از اجرای این لایحه پیش خواهد آمد گرچه خیلی ضروری است، اما دشوار است. (راستش را بخواهید به نظرم غیرممکن است). یعنی فرض کنیم مردم بدانند فردا نان گران می‌شود: یک راه این است که مردم به نانوایی هجوم ببرند و برای مصرف چند روز بعد خود نان بخرند، راه دیگر هم این است که تخت بخواند. البته مردم عموما راه‌حل اول را انتخاب می‌کنند و بعد هم با واقعیت کنار می‌آیند. اما مهم‌تر از گرانی خود نان، گرانی سایر کالاهایی است که در نتیجه این امر اتفاق می‌افتند. به عبارت دیگر همان شبی که بنزین یا نان گران می‌شود شاید بهتر باشد که برای مصرف چند روز مرغ و پینر و … خریداری کرد یا باز هم بی‌خیال شد. اما به‌هر‌حال این‌ها راه‌حل‌های کوتاه‌مدت هستند و باید به فکر ارائه راه‌حلی برای بلندمدت بود. مگر چقدر می‌توان بنزین یا نان خرید و در خانه نگهداری کرد؟ در ادبیات اقتصادی به یک‌شبه گران شدن بنزین و اجرای یک‌باره سیاستی مانند لایحه هدف‌مندسازی یارانه‌ها می‌گویند شوک درمانی که مکتب مقابل آن تدریج‌گرایی است. کاش اقتصاددانان و اقتصادخوانان کمی در این مورد پرکارتر می‌شدند. من اگر جای وزیر اقتصاد بودم به مخالفان و موافقان طرح مبالغی مساوی می‌دادم تا مزایا و معایب طرح را از دو زاویه بررسی کنند، شاید شفافیت بیشتر شود. راستش را بخواهید هرچه فکر می‌کنم کمتر راه‌حلی به ذهنم می‌رسد. هر روز با خودم می‌گویم روش مقابله با پیامدهای خواسته و ناخواسته اجرای این لایحه چگونه است؟

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  51. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

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  75. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

  76. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  79. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  86. This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

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  97. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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  99. Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

  100. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

  101. Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

  102. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  110. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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  136. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  138. This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

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  140. Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

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  142. The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

  143. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

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  148. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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  152. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

  153. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

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  162. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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  164. Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

  165. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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  167. Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

  168. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

  169. Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

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  176. The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

  177. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

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  196. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

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  203. If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

  204. Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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  218. I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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  222. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

  223. The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

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