مقدمه
بوتسوانا در ۱۹۶۶ اعلام استقلال کرد و با تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه ۹۱ دلار در میان فقیرترین کشورهای آفریقا و جهان جای داشت. آن زمان کشور تنها ۷ کیلومتر جاده صافشده، ۲ مدرسه راهنمایی، تنها ۲۲ فارغالتحصیل از دانشگاه و ۱۰۰ فارغالتحصیل از مدارس راهنمایی داشت (گزارش توسعه جهانی بانک جهانی ۱۹۹۵، عجماغلو، ۲۰۰۳). تنها فعالیت کارخانهای مهم در زمان استقلال کشور کشتارگاهی بود که در سال ۱۹۵۴ ساخته شده بود.
اما پس از آن بود که بوتسوانا بالاترین نرخ رشد را در میان کشورهای جهان تجربه کرد، با متوسط رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی سالانه ۹٫۹% در دوره زمانی ۲۰۰۴-۱۹۶۶٫ این رشد را میتوان با متوسط نرخ شد ۴٫۲۶% برای کشورهای کمدرآمد، ۴٫۱۹% برای کشورهای با درآمد متوسط و ۲٫۹۹% برای کشورهای صحرای آفریقا. اکنون بوتسوانا به عنوان کشوری با درآمد بالای حد متوسط طبقهبندی میشود و تولید ناخالص سرانه آن در سال ۲۰۰۴ برابر با ۵۰۱۴ دلار یا ۹۲۶۷ دلار برحسب برابری قدرت خرید بود. تولید ناخالص داخلی این کشور در سال ۲۰۰۸ تقریبا برابر با ۲۶٫۵۶۳ میلیارد دلار برآورد شده و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه آن برابر با ۱۴۹۰۶ دلار بوده است.
این سند رشد پایدار بوتسوانا با هر استانداردی تماشایی و دیدنی است. سند توسعه بوتسوانا برانگیزاننده است. بوتسوانا بالاترین یا دومین بالاترین نرخ رواج اچآیو/ ایدز را در جهان داشته است، حدود ۴۰%. علاوهبراین، بوتسوانا یکی از نابرابرترین کشورهای جهان است با ضریب جینی ۶۰٫۵ در سالهای ۲۰۰۸-۲۰۰۷ و به همین دلیل میزان سهمبری اکثریت جمعیت از منافع و مزایای رشد زیر سوال است.
۱- رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی
در جدول ذیل متوسط نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی ارائه شده است. نرخهای رشد سالانه در نمودار یک نشان داده شده است. نرخ رشد این کشور بهویژه بعد از استقلال آن شتاب گرفته و در اوایل دهه ۱۹۷۰ به اوج خود رسیده است، با نرخ رشد سالانه تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی حدود ۲۶% در ۱۹۷۱ و ۱۹۷۲٫ رشد این کشور در دهه ۱۹۸۰ بالا باقی ماند، که پایینترین نرخ رشد سالانه طی هر سال از این دهه برابر با ۷٫۱۳% بود. از آن پس یعنی از دهه ۱۹۹۰ تا به حال نرخ رشد این کشور تاحد زیادی کاهش یافته است.
رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی ۲۰۰۴-۱۹۶۰
|
۱۹۶۵-۱۹۶۰ |
۱۹۶۹-۱۹۶۶ |
۱۹۷۹-۱۹۷۰ |
۱۹۸۹-۱۹۸۰ |
۱۹۹۹-۱۹۹۰ |
۲۰۰۴-۲۰۰۰ |
|
۶٫۳۱% |
۱۰٫۴۷% |
۱۵٫۴۰% |
۱۱٫۳۵% |
۴٫۸۹% |
۴٫۹۲% |
۲- اجزاء تولید ناخالص داخلی
اول، کاهش سهم کشاورزی از ۴۳٫۲% تولید ناخالص داخلی (برحسب ارزش افزوده) در ۱۹۶۰ به ۳۹٫۳% در سال استقلال (۱۹۶۶) و به ۲٫۳% در ۲۰۰۴٫ البته ارزش افزوده واقعی این بخش از ۱۹۶۶ تا ۲۰۰۳ سه برابر شده است. دوم، رشد محسوس صنعت غیرکارخانهای – به ویژه معدن- که ارزش افزوده واقعی آن صد و پنجاه شش درصد از سال ۱۹۹۶ تا ۲۰۰۴ بوده است. سهم صنایع غیرکارخانهای از ۶٫۵% تولید ناخالص داخلی در سال ۱۹۶۶، در سال ۱۹۹۸ به نقطه اوج خود یعنی ۵۶٫۸% رسید و در سال ۲۰۰۴ این سهم نزدیک به ۴۰% بوده است. سوم، سهم کارخانهها در سالهای ۲۰۰۳ و ۲۰۰۴ به کمترین مقدار خود یعنی ۴٫۳% رسید. باینحال، ارزش افزوده مطلق این بخش از ۱۹۶۶ تا ۲۰۰۴ بیست و هفت درصد بوده است، که این موضوع قابلبحث و پیگیری است. سهم بخش خدمات بهطور استثنایی بالا و در حال افزایش است، که رشد واقعی آن از ۱۹۶۶ تا ۲۰۰۴ معادل سی و دو درصد بوده و از ۴۶٫۳% به ۵۳٫۵% تولید ناخالص داخلی رسیده است. همانطور که مشخص است در بخش صنعت یک کاهش اتفاق افتاده و در بخش خدمات یک افزایش و یک واژگونی هم در سهم کشاورزی و صنایع غیرکارخانهای.
شرکت الماس بوتسوانا که مالکیت آن در اختیار دولت و دی بیرز (Dee Beers) است بیش از ۷۰% درآمد صادراتی این کشور، ۳۰% تولید ناخالص داخلی و ۵۰% درآمد دولت را تشکیل میدهد و بزرگترین کارفرمای بیرون از بخش عمومی این کشور است.
ادامه دارد ….
من شباهت هایی با یک جای دیگه دنیا در سی سال پیش میبینم.
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