یادداشتی که برای روزنامه دنیای اقتصاد نوشتم. می توانید آن را در ادامه هم بخوانید.
مقدمه
در فاصله سالهای ۲۰۰۴-۱۹۹۱ یعنی یک دوره زمانی ۱۵ ساله بیش از ۴۰۰ زلزله در ۷۵ کشور جهان ثبت شده است که بر اثر وقوع آنها نزدیک به ۹ میلیون نفر بیخانمان شده و ۵۸۴ هزار نفر آسیب دیده و ۱۵۶ هزار نفر مردهاند. البته زلزله اخیر هائیتی که بیش از ۷ ریشتر شدت داشت و طبق گفته دولت این کشور ۲۳۰ هزار نفر کشته برجای گذاشت رکوردی در نوع خود محسوب میشود. پیامد این زلزلهها برای انسان دو چیز است: مرگومیر و بیخانمانی. هر دو هم عمدتا نتیجه تخریب مسکنها و آوار شدن آنها بر سر انسانها هستند. درواقع بسیاری از این مرگومیرها نتیجه فروپاشی ساختمانهایی بودهاند که یا بتن آنها آبکی بوده یا تیرآهنشان خوب نبوده یا سایر فعالیتهای صورت گرفته برای ساختوسازشان استاندارهای لازم برای مقاومت در برابر زلزله را نداشتهاند. گرچه انسان توان پیشبینی زلزله را ندارد اما توان کاستن از پیامدهای آن را دارد. اما اقتصاددانان معتقدند یکی از عواملی که اجازه کاستن از پیامدهای زلزله را نمیدهد و حتی بر آنها هم میافزاید فساد بخش عمومی و دولت در اقتصاد است.
فساد اقتصادی و زلزله و مرگومیر
مطالعات اخیر پیامدهای زیانبار مختلف فساد بخش عمومی بر عملکرد اقتصادی و سیاسی و اجتماعی کشورهای مختلف را مورد بررسی قرار دادهاند. برخی مطالعات نشان میدهند که فساد با سرمایهگذاری کمتر و در نتیجه رشد اقتصادی محدود همراه است. مطالعات دیگری نیز نشان میدهند که کشورهایی که سطح فساد در بخش عمومیشان بالا است، نسبت به آنهایی که فساد بخش دولتیشان کمتر است، کمکهای خارجی کمتری را از شرکایشان دریافت میکنند. همچنین فساد سرمایهگذاری خارجی را نیز بهطور معکوس متأثر میسازد. گروهی از مطالعات هم که در سطوح محلی و منطقهای انجام شدهاند نشان میدهند که قانونگذارانِ دولتیِ فاسد اغلب مشغول گزینش موانعی برای ورود رقبا به بازارهایی هستند که آنها میخواهند سود انحصاری تولیدکنندگان مورد نظر و محبوبشان را تضمین کنند. این سودها هم بعدا منبعی برای انتقال درآمد از مصرفکنندگان به قانونگذاران فاسد میشود.
برخی مطالعات نشان میدهند که مرگومیرهای جادهای بهطور معناداری در کشورهایی زیاد است که سطح فساد بخش عمومی نیز در آنها بالا است. مطالعاتی هم حاکی از این بودند که رابطهای میان فساد بخش عمومی و مرگومیرهای ناشی از زلزله وجود دارد. یعنی اینکه فساد میتواند و اغلب هم منجر به ساخت واحدهای مسکونی عمومی و خصوصی بیکیفیت و زیراستاندارد میشود و در کنار سایر عوامل در مواجهه با زلزله باعث مرگومیری بیش از آنچه در نبود این نوع فساد میتوانست اتفاق بیفتد میشوند.
انسان و زلزله تاریخی طولانی با هم دارند. دادههای مرکز دادههای ژئوفیزیک ملی (National Geophysical Data Center) نشان میدهد که اولین لرزش ثبت شده در اردن بوده است. این مرکز ۶۵۲۴ لرزش مهم را ثبت کرده که ۵۴۰ مورد آن در فاصله سالهای ۱۹۸۹-۲۰۰۳ به وقوع پیوسته است. درحالیکه بسیاری از این لرزشها کوچک بودهاند، هزینه زمینلرزههای این دوره زمانی از دست رفتن زندگی ۱۶۶۲۴۵ نفر انسان ، ۱۱۷ تریلیون دلار زیان دارایی و بیخانمانی تعداد بیشماری از انسانها بوده است. اما از فاصله سالهای ۱۹۹۹ تا ۲۰۰۱ سه زلزله بسیار مهم در سطح جهان رخ داد که شاید بررسی مقایسهای و واکنشها نسبت به آنها جالب باشد.
در ۱۷ آگوست ۱۹۹۹ زلزلهای با شدت ۷٫۶ ریشتر در مارمارا ترکیه آمد که ۱۷۱۱۸ نفر انسان جان خود را از دست دادند؛ در ۲۶ ژانویه ۲۰۰۱ زلزلهای ۷٫۷ ریشتری در در بوج هند رخ داد و باعث مرگ ۲۰۰۰۵ نفر شد و در ۲۶ دسامبر ۲۰۰۳ زلزلهای در مقیاس ۶٫۶ ریشتر شهر بم را لرزاند و باعث مرگ ۴۱۰۰۰ نفر شد. اما واکنشها:
بعد از وقوع زلزله در مارمارا وزیر کشور ترکیه گفت که فعالیتهای ساختمانی بدساخت عامل این همه مرگومیر بوده است: «پیمانکارانی که آن ساختمانها را ساختند و کسانی که مجوز کار برای آنها صادر کردند عامل این همه قتل انسانی هستند. سازندگان مسکن و بوروکراتها در این جرایم سازمانیافته دخیل بودند». همینطور گزارشی که از سوی انجمن مهندسان و معماران ترکیه منتشر شد به این نکته اشاره داشت که بیش از نیمی از کل ساختمانهای ترکیه الزامات استاندارد ساختوساز را رعایت نکردهاند و نمیکنند. بدون شک بخشی از این مشکلِ ترکیه نتیجه رشد سریع جمعیت بود که منجر به ساختوساز سریع مسکن بیکیفیت شده بود. متاسفانه، ساختوساز سریع لزوما با ساختوساز سازگار با زلزله سازگار نیست. بسیاری از مردگان در واقع قربانی فروپاشی مسکن غیراستانداردشان بر سرشان شدند.
مهمتر اینکه مساله و مشکل ترکیه به دلیل فقدان درک مهندسی یا استانداردهای ساختوساز مناسب و حساس به زلزله نیست، بلکه وجود پیمانکاران بیدقت و کمآزمودهای بوده و هست که از دستورالعملهای ملی در توافق با بازرسان دولتی فرار میکنند و در هنگام ساختوساز آنها را رعایت نمیکنند. این توافق هم به معنای پرداخت رشوه و در یک کلام وجود فساد اقتصادی در بخش دولتی ساختمانی این کشور است. در سال ۲۰۰۶ تُرکیش دیلی نیوز خبری را منتشر کرد که حکایت از این داشت که ۴۰ کارمند شهرداری در سه شهر ترکیه محکوم به حبس شدند چراکه با دریافت رشوه به ساختمانهای فاقد استاندارد اجازه ساختوساز داده بودند.
زلزله بوج هند ترس بیشتری را در دلها انداخت. درحالیکه دولت مرکزی هند استانداردهای ساختوساز حساس به زلزله را تعبیه کرده بود، تعداد کمی از دولتهای ایالتی آن کشور بهطور کامل آنها را اِعمال میکردند. موسسه زلزلهنگاری World Seismic Safety Initiative در بررسی خود از زلزله بوج اعلام کرد که: «فقدان بازرسیهای حضوری منجر به طراحی ساخت ضعیف ساختمانها و در مواردی استفاده از مصالح ساختمانی بیکیفیت در نتیجه فساد، بازار سیاه و ملاحظات اقتصادی ساده از سوی مشتری/سازنده مسکن شده است». روزنامه تایمز هند در سال ۲۰۰۱ نوشت: «چنانکه این امر در هند رایج است، فساد زیربنای فجایع قابلاجتناب ما مردمان هند است». مشکل فساد ساختوساز در هند کاملا شناخته شده بود و براساس گزارش موسسه همکاری برای تحقیق در علوم زیستمحیطی (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) در عرض یک هفته ۳۷ سازنده و معمار و مهندس ساختمان از ساختمانهای تخریب شده در زلزله بوج بهدلیل دخالت در آدمکشی و خیانت مجرمانه به مردم بیگناه محکوم شدند و پروانه کارشان باطل شد».
شرایط در زمینلرزه بم کمی متفاوت بود. چنان نبود که ایران مهندسان شهرسازی متخصصی نداشته باشد که بتوانند ساختمانی مقاوم در برابر زلزله بسازند. شرایط بم حتی به معنای این نبود که مهندسان دستورالعملهای پیشرفته لازم برای ساخت مسکنهایی مقاوم در برابر زلزله را همانند همتایان خود در کالیفرنیا و ژاپن نداشته باشند. کارشناسان و دستورالعملها و قوانین دههها بود که همه در ایران وجود داشتند. اما هنوز هم با هر زلزله مهمی، ساختمانهای جدید و قدیم، عمومی و خصوصی همه تخریب میشوند و یک فاجعه انسانی هم رخ میدهد. بهشت مسئول عظمت این تراژدیها نیست. حرص و فساد و کمبود دانش مقصران اصلی این ماجرا هستند. شاید مهمترین نکتهای که باید به آن اشاره کرد این است که زلزلهای حدفاصل سان فرانسیسکو و لوسآنجلس در روبلز را در سال ۲۰۰۳ لرزاند، که شدت آن تقریبا به اندازه زلزله بم یعنی ۶٫۶ ریشتر بود اما تنها منجر به مرگ دو نفر شد.
همانطور که مشخص است فساد در ساختوساز یکی از عوامل اصلی مرگومیرهای ناشی از زلزله است. انواع فساد که در بالا بدانها اشاره شد در بخش ساختوساز مسکن رواج دارند و بعضی مطالعات حکایت از این دارند که فساد بخش عمومی در این حوزه بیش از سایر بخشها است. شکی نیست که این امر دلایل بیشماری دارد، اما ماهیت فرانید ساختوساز یکی از مهمترین آنهاست. نخستین مرحله در هر پروژه ساختمانی بتنریزی فوندانسیون است که نه تنها زمین را میپوشاند بلکه فولا ساختاری نیز برای تقویت و ایمنی بتنریزی لازم است. مرحله بعد ساخت دیوارها و کف اتاقها و سقف است. بسته به اندازه پروژه، این مراحل نیازمند مصالح مختلفی مانند چوب یا تیرآهن یا … است و در نهایت هم ظاهر ساختمان است که با رنگ و نقاشی و سفال و … تزئین میشود.
اما رابطه میان این مراحل با فساد بخش عمومی در چیست؟ ساختوساز مراحل مختلفی دارد که هر یک در واقع مرحله قبلی را میپوشاند. لذا ممکن است هر مرحله کارها بهدلیل فساد مشتری/سازنده و از همه مهمتر فساد ناظر برساختوساز که باید جلو فساد آن دو را بگیرد، بهخوبی و با کیفیت لازم انجام نشود. پدیدهای که بهخوبی در گفته وزیر کشور ترکیه و موسسه تحقیقات مسکن هند نمود یافته است. البته ممکن است نامطلوبی مسکن هیچگاه به چشم نیاید اگر در معرض آزمونهایی همچون زلزله قرار نگیرد، اما وای به روزی که چنین شود!
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مطالعهای که ۳۴۴ زلزله مهم را در ۴۲ کشور جهان در فاصله سالهای ۱۹۷۵-۲۰۰۳ مورد بررسی قرار داده حکایت از وجود یک رابطه مثبت معنادار میان سطح فساد بخش عمومی و مرگومیرهای ناشی از وقوع زلزله دارد. لذا چنانکه میبینیم گرچه نمیتوان وقوع زلزله را پیشبینی کرد و در این مورد هنوز کاری از دست انسان ساخته نیست، اما در کاستن از پیامدهای آن انسان میتواند کارهای زیادی بکند که یکی از مهمترین آنها کاستن از فساد بخش عمومی و دولتی در بخش ساختوساز است. کشورهایی که در این مسیر گام برداشتهاند در مواجهه با زلزلهها هم کمتر زیان های انسانی و مالی داشتهاند.
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تعدادی از کشورها، تعداد زلزلهها، تعداد مرگ و میر و فساد (۲۰۰۳-۱۹۷۵) |
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کشور |
تعداد زلزلهها |
متوسط تعداد مرگ و میر |
متوسط فساد (شاخص فساد (۲۰۰۵)، راهنمای ریسک کشوری بینالمللی ( International Country Risk Guide). 6 حداقل فساد و صفر حداکثر فساد |
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الجزیره |
۲ |
۳۶۳۳ |
۲٫۳ |
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استرالیا |
۲ |
۰ |
۶٫۰ |
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بولیوی |
۱ |
۱۰۵ |
۴٫۰ |
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شیلی |
۱۵ |
۱۵ |
۴٫۲ |
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چین |
۲۴ |
۱۱۳۱ |
۴٫۰ |
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کلمبیا |
۱۰ |
۸۸ |
۳٫۵ |
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کنگو |
۲ |
۵ |
۶٫۰ |
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کاستاریکا |
۵ |
۱۱ |
۳٫۰ |
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جمهوری دومنیکن |
۲ |
۴ |
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اکوادور |
۶ |
۱۷۱ |
۴٫۰ |
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مصر |
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۱۲ |
۴٫۸ |
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السالوادور |
۳ |
۴۰۱ |
۳٫۵ |
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اتیوپی |
۱ |
۲ |
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یونان |
۱۲ |
۱۰ |
۴٫۴ |
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گواتمالا |
۵ |
۴۴۸۶ |
۳٫۴ |
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گینه |
۱ |
۴۴۳ |
۴٫۰ |
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هندوراس |
۱ |
۰ |
۳٫۰ |
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هند |
۸ |
۴۰۲۷ |
۳٫۳ |
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اندونزی |
۳۹ |
۲۴۸ |
۲٫۲ |
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ایران |
۲۱ |
۵۹۳۲ |
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ایتالیا |
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ژاپن |
۲۱ |
۲۸۳ |
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مالاویا |
۱ |
۹ |
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مکزیک |
۲۰ |
۵۰۱ |
۳٫۱ |
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نیوزلند |
۶ |
۰ |
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نیکاراگوئه |
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۹۰ |
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پاکستان |
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پاناما |
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گینه نو پاپوا |
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پرو |
۱۵ |
۲۷ |
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فیلیپین |
۲۱ |
۳۹۳ |
۲٫۴ |
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پرتغال |
۲ |
۳۳ |
۴٫۵ |
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رومانی |
۲ |
۸ |
۳٫۸ |
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روسیه |
۷ |
۲۸۶ |
۳٫۱ |
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سودان |
۲ |
۱۶ |
۳٫۰ |
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تایوان |
۹ |
۲۹۰ |
۳٫۹ |
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تانزانیا |
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۰ |
۲٫۰ |
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ترکیه |
۱۶ |
۱۷۴۰ |
۳٫۱ |
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اوگاندا |
۱ |
۷ |
۴٫۰ |
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ایالات متحده |
۳۰ |
۵ |
۶٫۲ |
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ونزوئلا |
۲ |
۴۲ |
۴٫۰ |
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یمن |
۲ |
۱۴۳۳ |
۴٫۰ |
درود
در مورد پدیده زلزله باید جندین نکته را همزمان در نظر داشت.من البته با این نگره کلان که فساد ساختازی موجب ناکارامدی ساختاری و این اخری موجب عواقب وخیم برای افرتد جامعه است مخالفتی ندارم. اما وقتی متن قرار است از سطح کلان به سطح اندازه گیری و کمی برسد انتظار نتایج مشخص تری دارم.والا کلی گویی یا به عبارت بهتر استنتاج قیاسی گزاره های کلی بدون نیاز به جمع اوری اعداد و ارقام نیز به سهولت مقدور است.
و اما نکات گفتنی :
۱_حجم اصلی تخریب های ساختمانی در مورد زلزله بم و یا مشابه در ایران مربوط به بناهای با عمر بیش از ۲۰ سال بوده است {تخریب کامل} و البته بناهای خشت و گلی. احداث این بناها مربوط به سال ها قبل از تدوین ایین نامه های طراحی سازه ای نظیر ۲۸۰۰ و غیره است.
۲_تخریب ساختمان های نوساز بطور عمده تخریب های موضعی و تخریب های مربوط به عناصر غیر سازه ای ابنیه بوده است. در مورد اخیر ایین نامه های مورد عمل همچنان مبهم و غیر صریح هستند.
۳_دانش ما از زلزله همچنان ناکافی است. بم در پهنه بندی خطر زلزله مکانی با پیش بینی احتمال زلزله پایین طبقه بندی شده بود. علت عدم انجام مطالعات کافی در مورد گسل های منطقه بود. کمبود اطلاعات و مطالعات در مورد بخش های سرزمینی زیادی از کشور همچنان وجود دارد.
۴_ایین نامه های مورد عمل جهت طراحی سازه ای چند بار بازخوتنی و اصلاح شده اند اخرین ان ۸_۹ سال پیش بوده است. که امری عادی است.
۵_فساد عمومی نه به شکل زدوبند در طراحی یا ساخت بلکه به شیوه ساختاری در ناکارایی بخش ساخت و ساز منعکس است. حذف نهاد های کارشناسی از فرایند تصمیم سازی و تصمیم گیری و تصرف مناصب حرفه ای مرتبط با مدیریت و برنامه ریزی توسط اشخاص فاقد صلاحیت. اعمال تبعیض ناروا در تصدی موقعیت های حرفه ای و سایر مسایل عمده اصلی ترین مشکل بخش ساخت و ساز است. والا بهبود تکنولوزی ساخت و انجام مطالعات به هنگام و افزایش سرعت واکنش اهل حرفه به نحولات علمی چیز هایی نیست که در توان فنی و علمی بالقوه متخصصین موجود در این سرزمین نباشد.
شاد باشید.
با سلام
احساس من این است که ارجاع دادن مرگ و میر ناشی از زلزله به تخلفات عمومی در ساخت و ساز ما را از واقعیت کمی دور می کند. بزرگترین مشکل بخش مسکن کشور فقر مسکن است که عموماً مترادف با فقر درامدی است. من جدول داده شده در مقاله شما را با کمی تغییر در یک نمودار بررسی کردم. ابتدا شاخص نفر کشته در هر زلزله را ساخته و بعد یک نمودار بین شاخص فساد و این شاخص رسم کردم. همانگونه که انتظار داشتم رابطه معنی داری بین این دو شاخص مشاهده نمی شود. به نظر من مشکل زلزله بم در فقر مسکن بود نه در تخلفات عمومی ساخت و ساز. فکر نمی کنم این مساله فراگیری باشد که خانوار با درآمد بالا در خانه ای کم دوام (عموماً خشت و گل) زندگی کند. مطالعه دکتر سوری از هزینه درامد خانوار ایرانی تا حدودی این مطلب را تایید می کند. هر چند که در بعضی از شهرها نمونه نقص هم مشاهده کرده است. بنابراین باید بگویم که نظر شما من را قانع نمی کند.
فقر مسکن یعنی چی؟ می شود این را دقیق تر توضیح دهید
فقر مسکن را نمی توانم تعریف کنم اما درباره آن توضیح می دهم و مصداق بیرونی آنرا بیان می کنم.
فقر مسکن اشاره به پدیده ای دارد که در آن یک فرد یا خانوار توانایی دستیابی به شاخص های مطلوب مسکن را ندارد. هر چند مساله مطلوبیت مسکن بطور کلی قابل اجماع نیست اما مشابه فقر درآمدی می توان برای آن ویژگی هایی بیان داشت. مثلاً در خصوص مساله مورد بحث شما، مسکن مطلوب مسکنی است که ایمنی لازم را در برابر زلزله های عمومی کشور (در حدود ۶ ریشتر) را داشته باشد. شاخص های دیگر می تواند برخورداری از امکانات ضروری یک خانه مثل حمام، آشپزخانه و … باشد. بنابراین میتوان یک شاخص ترکیبی از مطلوبیت مسکن ساخت که عدم توانایی در دسترسی به ان برای یک خانوار نشان دهنده فقر مسکن آن خانوار باشد. بنابراین طبق این توضیح فقر مسکن در ارتباط مستقیم با فقر درآمدی است. (هر چند که مثال نقص آن نیز در یک جامعه آماری بزرگ قابل مشاهده خواهد بود)
یک شاخص برای بررسی گسترش فقر مسکن شاخص دسترسی خانوار در سال های مختلف است.
مصداق بیرونی پدیده فقر مسکن تا انجا که من اطلاع دارم دو عارضه شهری حاشیه نشینی و بافت فرسوده شهری است. اما باید دقت کرد که این دو عارضه تماماً مرتبط با فقر مسکن نیست. مثلاً در نواحی اطراف مراکز شهری که گاهی سابقه تاریخی نیز دارند، وجود بافت فرسوده شهری می تواند ناشی از محدودیت های ساخت و ساز باشد. در خصوص حاشیه نشینی نیز گاهی مواردی مشاهده می گردد که علت اصلی فقر مسکن نیست. مخصوصاً وقتی که محدوده اشتغال و سکونت بصورت مختلط بوده یا نزدیک به هم باشد. نمونه آن در تبریز مشاهده شده است.
برایم من جالب است که بدانم دلیل سوال شما با اینکه با این مباحث آشنا هستید چیست؟
خوب پس در مورد زلزله نبود فقر مسکن یعنی مسکن مقاوم در برابر زلزله. یعنی از نظر درآمدی خانوار توانایی ساخت مسکنی را داشته باشد که در مقابل زلزله مقاوم باشد. فرض کنیم در نمونه بم یا تهران: اول تهران: آیا اگر زلزله بیاید منطقه الهیه در امان است، تقریبا همه چیز حکایت از این دارد که نه. آیا سعادت آیاد دارد، نه، و تقریبا تهران چنین پوششی در برابر زلزله ندارد. مناطق زیادی از تهران با فقر درآمدی روبه رو نیستند، خانه ها نوسازند، اما در برابر زلزله مقاوم نیستند، یعنی در ساخت آنها دستورالعمل های لازم برای ایمن بودن رعایت نمی شود.
بم هم همینطور: درست است که سطح درآمد در بم پایین بوده اما هیچ خانه ای چه نوساز و چه قدیمی از زلزله در اما نبوده اند. ببین دو مثال ترکیه و هند برای ما غریب نیستند، اما رفتار دولت بعد از لزله در آنجا بسیار آموزنده است که من به آنها اشاره کرده ام. ولی ما اینها را نمی پذیریم.
حتی یک قدم جلوتر برویم: فرض کنیم صاحب مسکن فقر درآمدی دارد. سوال: آیا او باید پس از ساخت مسکن گواهی پایان کار بگیرد؟ حتما. چطور باید بتواند بگیرد: با ساخت و پاخت. در اینجا بحث سیاستگذاری پیش می آید که دولت در موارد فقر درآمدی یارانه بدهد تا مسکن ایمن ساخته شود.
راستش من می خواستم ببینم تعریف شما همین است یا چیز دیگری؟ راستی کار آقای سوری اسمش چیست؟
اما فقر مسکن منجر به حاشیه نشینی و بافت فرسوده هم قصه دیگری دارد که بازهم حکایت فساد نهادی را نقض نمی کند.
من دو مطلب را از هم جدا می کنم. مساله ناکارایی نهادی و مساله فقر مسکن. طبیعی است که در بخش مسکن باید نهادی ناظر بر ساخت و ساز باشد که گواهی آن خود برای خریدار مسکن اطمینان بخش باشد. این یک حقیقت است که یک کشور رانتی مثل ایران در همه بخش ها هدف افراد حداکثر استفاده از رانت می شود. اگر هم نباشد فرد به دنبال ایجاد یک منبع رانت جدید می رود. بنابراین مساله ایران یک مساله کلی و فراگیر است. بدون شک دولت برای مدت طولانی نمی تواند این سرچشمه های رانت را در بخش نظارت ساخت و ساز از بین ببرد و سرانجام پس از مدتی به گونه ای دیگر خود را نشان می دهد.
منظور من از تاکید بر فقر مسکن به این دلیل است که ساخت یک واحد مسکونی با مشخصات مقاوم سازی شده در برابر زلزله که همگی مراحل نظارتی را طی کرده باشد، پر هزینه خواهد بود و در واقع فرد بین افزایش متراژ ساختمان (یا حتی دارا بودن ساختمان) و افزایش کیفی مسکن در برابر زلزله انتخاب می کند. طبیعی است که در شرایط بازار مسکن ایران همیشه مورد اول انتخاب خواهد شد. به هر حال امور قطعی شانس انتخاب بیشتری نسبت به امور احتمالی دارد. شاید بتوان برای این تصمیم گیری خانوار یک مدل اقتصادی هم طراحی کرد.
بنابراین افزایش کیفیت ساختمان یک امر تقاضا محور است نه عرضه محور (حداقل در خصوص واحدهای مسکونی ارزان مورد تقاضای اقشار کم و متوسط درامد).
باب شدن یک یارانه دیگر به عنوان یارانه استحکام ساختمان همانند سایر یارانه های بخش مسکن خود منبع دیگری از رانت را باز خواهد کرد و نتیجه چندان تغییری نخواهد داشت.
اینکه چرا برخلاف مسئولان ترکیه و هند مسئولان کشور ما چیز دیگری می گویند جای تحلیل دارد اما مسلماً نقش مردم، بازار و نهادهای موجود در ایران متفاوت از آنجاست.
مطالعه فقر مسکن دکتر سوری- وزارت مسکن- پروژه بانک جهانی
ببینید من تنها عامل ساخت و سازهای ضعیف را وجود فساد نهادی نمیدانم. جدول فوق هم نشان می دهد که ایران در میانه این جدول است. و عواملی که شما می گویئد نیز موثرند. اما مساله این است که اگر به فردی ساکن تهران بگویئد باید در هنگام ساخت مسکن ضوابط مربوط به زلزله را نیز اجرایی کنی به گمان شما فرد از این راه پیروی نخواهد کرد؟ راستش برای من سخت است که فکر کنم مسکن های ساخته شده در تهران و سایر شرهای بزرگ و حتی برخی شرهای دست دوم ایران از تریدآف مورد نظر شما پیروی کنند. اما تمامی آنها در دریافت پروانه و پایان کار با هزینههای مبادله زیادی روبهرو هستند که ترجیح میدهند به طریق دیگری آنرا حل کنند. خوب زلزله هم با این فرقی ندارد.
به گمان من مساله این است که به دلیل هزینه های مبادله بسیار زیاد ساخت مسکن برای فرد که از نهادهای مختلف نشأت می گیرند، فرد به این مورد هم که می رسد متقاضی حل این مساله می شود: یعنی حاضر است با پرداخت مبلغ مشخصی پول از این ضابطه نیز فرار کند، و از آن مهمتر ناظر است که با دریافت کمترین مبلغی هم حاضر است وظیفه خود را فراموش کند. یعنی برخلاف شما من فکر می کنم در بخش اعظمی از نواحی شهری ایران فرد انتخابش میان افزایش متراژ ساختمان (یا حتی دارا بودن ساختمان) و افزایش کیفی مسکن در برابر زلزله نیست، بلکه انتخابش میان دادن پول کمتری برای فرار از اجرای ضوابط زلزله ای و رعایت آنها با مبلغی بیشتر است.
حالا: فرض کنیم حرف شما صحیح: صاحب مسکن متقاضی رعایت ضوابط زلزله نیست، اما آیا ناظر هم باید با دریافت رشوه کوتاه بیاید. این ضوابط که در همه جا می تواند شبیه هم باشد و از قضا رشوه گیر هم میتواند هیچ مسئولیتی نداشته باشد. اما چرا در برخی از کشورهای جدول فوق سطح فساد (رشوه) خیلی پایین است، به دلیل عواقب رشوه گیری و رشوه دهی؟ رشوه گیر از کار بیکار می شود و …. در ثانی طبیعی است که مردم امریکا هم برای حادثه ای که معلوم نیست کی اتفاق بیفتد و به قول شما احتمالی است تمایل چندانی به پرداخت پول ندارند، اما ضوابط قانونی آنها را ملزم به پرداخت می کند. یعنی این از حیطه تقاضای صرف مصرف کننده عقلایی خارج و به امری اجباری تبدیل می شود. یعنی در امریکا امور قطعی شانس بیشتری نسبت امور احتمالی ندارد؟
البته در این مورد به دلیل عدم وجود آمار نمی توان آن را در کشور خودمان بررسی کرد: اما کافی است برای نمونه به درآمد ماده صد شهرداری نگاه کنیم. این رقم در بعضی کشورهای خاورمیانه نسبت به متوسط دنیا ۳۵ تا ۵۰ درصد بالاتر است. خوب این تنها ناشی از تقاضای مردم نیست بلکه برعکس شک ندارم که بخشی عمده آن نشان از فساد نهادینه شده دارد.
رگرسیون داده های فوق حکایت از رابطه بسیار معنادری میان فساد نهادی و تعداد مرگ و میرها دارد. راستش من باب شدن یک یارانه دیگر مخالفم و آن را همین جوری مطرح کردم. ولی این مساله راه حل دارد.
اقای فرهادی پور
اگر شخص از سازوکارهای طراحی ساخت و نظارت مطلع بود چنین بی محابا ادعاهایی نظیر فیاد عوامل نظارتی ومسائل درونی دیگر مطرح نمیکرد. من قبلن توضیح دادم که فساد در بخش ساخت و ساز چگونه عمل میکند. مسئله فقر مسکن در حوزه حرفه مندان مسایل مجتمع های زیستی به عنوان فقر سکونت شناخته میشود و بحث های مشخصی دارد.
من اطمینان دارم ورود به مباحث بین رشته ای یک کار گروهی است نه کار انفرادی. بخصوص زمانیکه اطلاعات کافی مکتوب و مستند در اختیار فرد نباشد. در مورد زلزله بم قبلن به جزئیات تخریب ها اشاره کردم که ناقض ادعای شماست مبنی بر تخریب یکسان بناهای نوساز و قدیمی.
در مورد تهران و مثلن سعادت اباد یا الهیه اظهار نظری که کرده اید کاملن نادرست است.سعادت اباد جزئ ایمن ترین مناطق سکونتی تهران است. کل ساخت و سازهای نوساز الهیه از کل سازه های بیش از ۱۵ سال قذمت ایمن تر است.
معلوم نیست نویسنده محترم چرا از پروپاگاند های روزنامه ها به منظور تحلیل استفاده مینماید به جای رجوع به اطلاعات صحیح.
بحث شما در خصوص هزینه مبادله هم در چارچوب ساختار نهادی ناقص قابل بحث است. در واقع نهادهای ناکارا موجب تحمیل هزینه مبادله می شوند. پس من هم با شما در این خصوص موافقم. اما نه تنها من که در کارهای دیگر نیز به مساله مورد اشاره من بطور ضمنی پرداخته شده است. به عنوان مثال در مطالعات پشتیبان طرح جامع مسکن آمده است که کم بودن حجم عرضه واحدهای نوساز در مقابل واحدهای موجود، امکان اینکه واحدهای ایمنتر نوساز نسبت به واحدهای موجود قیمت بالاتری بیایند کم است. این مساله خود ترغیبی برای سازنده است که از ساخت واحدهای گرانتر مقاوم در برابر زلزله بپرهیزد. فکر نمی کنم ترید آف مورد اشاره من چندان از واقعیت دور باشد. به هر حال هر بحثی نیاز به پشتوانه تجربی دارد که امکان آن وجود ندارد.
در خصوص بحث تخصص علارغم موافقت ضمنی با نظر دوست غریبه ، من مثال های زیادی از سازمانهایی دارم که تحت مدیریت افراد حرفه ای بودند اما به دلیل ساختار اقتصادی-اجتماعی که من به آن اشاره کردم عملاً تغییر چندانی در عملکرد آنها مشاهده نشده است (البته این تنها تحلیل شخصی من از علت است). به هر حال من به مطالعه ای در خصوص رابطه بین استخدام افراد متخصص و کاهش فساد و رانت در حوزه اقتصاد مشاهده نکردم. شاید شما منبعی سراغ دارید.
شاید شما ندانید که بیشترین سطح استفاده از توان مهندسی کشور در وزارت نفت و آن هم در سطوح عالیه مهندسی از قبل از انقلاب بوده است. پست های کلیدی وزارت نفت عموماً توسط فارغ التحصیلان شریف اشغال شده است. اما …
آقای فرهادی پور شاید بد نباشد مطلبی در خصوص رابطه بین منبع رانت قابل دسترس و فساد اداری بنویسید. فکر کنم کار جالبی بدست آید.
با تشکر
سام
سام
ممنون.
. نکات مورد نظر تو باعث شد تا من در مطالعه ام به بخشهای دیگری از مساله نیز توجه کنم.
مثل فقر مسکن یا همان فقر درآمی. باید ببنیم رگرسیون ها چه می گویند؟
راستش من به کارایی قیمتی و کارایی مجهول یا همان کارایی x علاقه خاصی دارم و همیشه این بینشم را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد. اما راستش حال ندارم توضیح بدم کارایی x چیه.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
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Your key phrase here El: decent team. Which the Giants are not. His stick is/was more than ample to justify his position in the top of the lineup. Hes botched some plays and also made some really good recoveries. Unlike asshat Rowand who seems to take naps between pitches sometimes, he actually has a degree of concentration and focus that one would expect in a defensive backwhich he was in college.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
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Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)
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The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
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Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.
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Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.
If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.